Rhine disruption lifts ARA fuel oil stocks as inland supplies tighten

Low water levels on the Rhine are disrupting fuel oil logistics and widening the gap between coastal stocks and inland availability, according to Alkagesta Market Insights. In its October 2026 outlook, the company describes severe restrictions on Upper Rhine barge navigation, with heavy refined products building up at coastal ports while inland European consumers face physical supply shortages ahead of the fourth-quarter heating season.

Alkagesta reports a gauge reading of minus 5 cm at Kaub, a critical point for Rhine navigation, on 1 October, followed by 0 cm on 2 October. It attributes the transport disruption to severe drought along the river. The report says the resulting constraints have forced major inland refining sites to cut barge loadings by as much as one-third, identifying Shell Rheinland and MiRO Karlsruhe as particularly affected.

The company lists Shell Rheinland’s refining capacity at 190,000 barrels per day and MiRO Karlsruhe’s at 316,000 bpd. Its account concerns reduced barge loadings rather than a quantified reduction in refinery processing rates. The logistical restrictions are presented as a central factor behind the simultaneous accumulation of heavy products at the coast and shortages in inland consumer markets.

Fuel oil inventories in the Amsterdam-Rotterdam-Antwerp hub reached 961,000 tonnes, an increase Alkagesta puts at 18.5% week on week. The outlook separately cites 842,000 tonnes in its 8 September report as an earlier reference point. Alkagesta says the latest stock position reinforces the divergence between Rhine-dependent inland markets and ARA availability that it had highlighted in that previous assessment.

The outlook combines Alkagesta’s internal assessments with publicly available material from external sources. It says some numerical information is derived from, or informed by, S&P Global Platts publications, without assigning individual figures to specific sources. Alkagesta also cautions that its analysis includes expectations about future market conditions and provides no guarantee of accuracy or completeness.

Read the original announcement on Alkagesta.